War is back in Europe. Russo-Ukrainian war as a defining moment in the post-Cold War world order

24 February 2022 Russia started a full-scale war against Ukraine. This war will be truly historical and detrimental for Europe and the whole world. The post-Cold War order was demolished. We came to a point of a massive war in Europe, which we did not see for 80 years. Ukraine is now defending itself against the biggest country, and the second most powerful military in the world, alone. Russia’s war against Ukraine is massive in scale, it already killed thousands of Ukrainian civilians and damaged the country’s infrastructure and cities, causing a refugee influx of 3 million people into the neighbouring countries (BBC, 2022), shaking the oil, gas, commodities, wheat, and other markets and reshaping Europe’s political and security status-quo forever. 

So why did Putin start this war and what is the reasoning behind it?

How did we get here?

Since 2014, after the Euromaidan revolution, Ukraine was slowly, but steadily integrating with the EU and the West, growing economically, sustaining its democratic principles. All this was done despite the occupied Crimea and the war in Donbas, which Russia instigated to undermine the growth and existence of the Ukrainian state. Nevertheless, Ukraine survived, the popularity of pro-Russian parties was decreasing every year, and the popularity of the EU and NATO was increasing. Ukraine’s army also went through significant improvements and was rebuilt from complete ruins in 2014. The army was conducting joint exercises with NATO and its member states, receiving a lot of technological defensive weapons such as anti-tank missiles Javelin and NLAW from the US and UK, drones Bayraktar TB2 from Turkey and various types of other weapons from Poland, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and other countries (Deutsche Welle, 2022).  

One way or another, Ukraine was developing, both economically and militarily and with every year it was moving further and further from Moscow. All these years the Kremlin tried to sabotage Ukraine’s development and Euro-Atlantic aspirations through the imposition of the Minsk agreements in the Russian interpretation. It would essentially integrate occupied Donbas, which is now under Moscow's control, into Ukraine on Russia’s terms and create a Trojan horse inside of Ukraine. Kyiv was not agreeing on Russia’s interpretation of Minsk since it would de-facto signify the undermining of sovereignty of the whole country. Naturally, after these 8 years, Kremlin was not very happy with the results, that Ukraine was still moving further away, despite the war and Moscow’s pressure. Time was on Ukraine’s side, even with an ongoing war on its territory. Russia needed to act otherwise it felt it could lose Ukraine forever. That was contributing to the momentum, which Russia thought to exploit and resolve the question of Ukraine once and for all. 

In addition, the poorly-planned withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan and the division inside of the country accelerated Putin’s calculus to act now. The United States looked weak, Germany just got a new government and its political line was yet unclear, Ukraine was becoming stronger and historically more distant from Russia than anytime else in history. All these factors created momentum for Putin when he realised that now can be the best moment to act, the moment which will not happen in the future again.

This desire to “return” Ukraine has deep roots though. After the fall of the USSR many people in Russia, including Putin felt the unfairness of this event and even with the relative economic growth of Russia in the 2000s there was a significant nostalgia for the soviet times. In 2018 this nostalgia peaked with 66% of Russians claiming that they regret the collapse of the USSR (Лысенко, 2018). Ukraine was the second most important republic in the Soviet Union and an essential part of the Russian geopolitical dominance in the region. At the end of the day, Zbigniew Brzezinski was right when he said: “Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire” (Saradzhyan, 2014). In particular, Ukraine (as well as all other republics of course) contributed significantly to the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany, which Russia tries to privatize solely on itself, with 7 Front and Army Commanders, 200 Generals, more than 6 million soldiers (Embassy of Ukraine to the Arab Republic of Egypt, 2015). After the start of a Russo-Ukrainian war on 24th February and the results of the insignificant advance of Russian troops during these weeks, I believe, it is fair to say that Russia, historically existed as a great power only with Ukraine as an ally. Russia, however, not only failed to make Ukraine its ally after 1991 but also made it its enemy after the annexation of Crimea. That being said, Ukraine is essential for Russia to project its influence regionally or even globally. Without subordinated and controlled Ukraine (and Belarus in addition) the geopolitical significance and dominance of Russia in Europe are limited. After the defeat in the Cold War, the legal successor of the USSR - Russia didn’t seem to agree and cope with such a result. Revanchism was first very clearly expressed by Putin in 2007 in his Munich speech, which was already supposed to become a signal to the West back then (Politico, 2022). Further actions of Russia such as the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and annexation of Crimea in 2014 just proved the implementation of these revanchist plans. 

That was also expressed in the ultimatum given by Russia to NATO in December of 2021, during the Russian troops build upon Ukraine’s borders, with such bizarre demands as, for example, “NATO shall not deploy military forces and weaponry on the territory of CEE (members which entered NATO after 1997)” (Reevell, 2021). The ultimatum was unacceptable on arrival but it showed the real desires and “grievances” of Moscow. The desires are to return back in a time when Russia was one of the two superpowers. In addition, Putin, like many other Russian politicians, denies Ukraine’s right to exist as a sovereign state. As he wrote in his article, Ukrainians and Russians are one people, by that, basically denying the very existence of Ukraine as a nation. (Deutsche Welle, 2021). That can be heard from many other Russian politicians and propagandists, claiming that Ukraine is some sort of a “fake country” or “artificial state’, etc. We need to understand these factors as all of them contribute to Putin’s reasoning and justification of this war. Don't be tricked by the claims of “NATO enlargement”, which somehow mystically threatens Russia, a country with the biggest nuclear arsenal and second most powerful army in the world. It is just a pretext for war justification. Ukraine was neutral before the annexation of Crimea, it was not considering joining NATO, there was no discussion about it in society. Estonia and Latvia have been members of NATO since 2004, they border Russia and nothing has happened. Russia’s real goal is to subjugate and control Ukraine, then divide Europe and NATO, and undermine the Western democratic societies by all the means available. They could not get Ukraine politically with the puppet candidates inside of Ukraine and bribed politicians. Putin came to the measure of last resort, the most brutal and primitive one - military solution. As B.Maçães says: “The Kremlin’s plans for Ukraine are simple and relatively public: the destruction of the Ukrainian state. The most likely form is a captured, dysfunctional state.”

The present state of events

Unfortunately, every day Russia increases brutality and destroys more and more buildings, houses, schools and hospitals. Thousands of civilians died, including children and thousands of civilian objects were destroyed. Having no real military successes for 20 days of the war, Russia turned to its traditional and proven tactics: levelling cities and terrorizing the population. It was used in Syria, Aleppo in 2019 (Hill and Triebert, 2019), and Grnozy, Chechnya in 1999 (McQuilkin and Chakrabarti, 2022). The resistance of Ukrainians and the overestimation of the Russian army brought Putin to anger and the only measure he will be using now is this sort of brutal attacks on civilians and civil infrastructure. Here we need to look closely at the reaction of NATO and the world community in general, including the UN. As Ukraine becomes more and more damaged every day, Europe and the West, in general, should start really thinking about how far they allow it to go. NATO chief Stoltenberg said that Russia may use a chemical weapon in Ukraine. I wouldn’t be surprised and both NATO and EU must be ready for this. 

What we see during all the last years is that Russia sets the agenda for NATO, by giving the red lines and threats, while it is NATO with its economic and military dominance, which is in the position to set up an agenda and draw lines. The whole propaganda image of Russia as some kind of a military superpower was discredited in Ukraine. As retired US Lieutenant General Ben Hodges says: "The weaknesses are being revealed in terms of logistics, terrible maintenance, the fact that they don't have sergeants like we do that can enforce discipline” (Novak, 2022). Noone wants direct contact between Russia and NATO but it is also worth reconsidering the stance of NATO during the past years and in this war and acting more confidently. The repeated signalling and official declarations of “non-intervention in Ukraine” or “no-fly-zone is off the table” project nothing else than a weakness. Even if it is an official stand of NATO, no need to announce it every second day so Russia will feel this weakness and exploit an opportunity. 

US and Europe should not be too cautious and afraid of the broader assistance of Ukraine. Putin understands only the language of force and power and NATO has all the resources and capabilities to signify such a power. The story of transferring polish MiGs-29 fighter jets, which was unfolding for more than a week and Ukraine still did not get them raises questions (Ioanes, 2022). All the politics of “avoiding escalation” or “non provoking Russia” usually were leading to the exact opposite result and now we came to the point of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine after months of diplomatic visits and talks. 

Those who are afraid of starting World War 3 probably need to accept the uncomfortable fact, that it may have already started, we just don’t realise it yet. Putin already compared the sanctions against Russia as a declaration of war, not to mention massive weapon supplies Kyiv gets from its partners (Газета.ru, 2022). Belarus is also a party to the war, aligning with Russia and allowing its territory to be used as a platzdarm to siege Kyiv and other regions bordering Belarus. Ukraine already got at least 16 thousands foreign volunteers, fighting on its side (Мілітарний, 2022), while Russia recruiting Syrian fighters and other mercenaries, mostly from the Middle East and Africa. (Al Jazeera, 2022). Clearly, the war becomes more and more internationalised. 

I think that when we speak about Russia, the role of diplomacy is overrated. It is wishful thinking to believe that we can solve these geopolitical clashes of civilizations with talks or negotiations. Russia had plenty of proposals and room for negotiations from NATO in December, which it all neglected. Let’s be honest and genuine. Neither Russia nor Ukraine are ready to agree to each other's demands. Ukraine will not give up its territories and sovereignty and Russia will not accept anything less than recognition of Crimea as a part of Russia and Donbas as an independent state or also part of Russia. This war can end with the military defeat of Russia or a regime change inside. The collapsing economy due to the effects of the sanctions is also one of the scenarios which may affect Russia’s demands and negotiating position. Everything beyond that, probably will not work. As Kristi Raik states: “Russia is stopped by force, not by caution. No amount of diplomacy makes Russia redefine its imperial goals”.

The role of the EU 

I believe that after the war Ukraine should join the EU as soon as possible. It has been waiting since 2013 when Ukrainians showed a tremendous will and desire to integrate closer with the EU during the Euromaidan revolution, where more than 100 people were killed by the police. The Euromaidan was full of EU flags and it is in the memory of every Ukrainian. A lot of successful reforms were implemented during these 8 years and Ukraine became integrated with the EU as never before. Not only it will be a moral victory for the EU to let Ukraine in, but also be real proof that the fight for freedom and democracy even against a much bigger and stronger enemy can achieve victory; that Ukraine, even after the unprecedented damage and casualties still can revive as a free and successful country, being a part of a European family. Being one of the first victims of dictatorial aggression in Europe since WW2 (after Georgia in 2008), the new Ukraine will be a symbol of victory and freedom in Europe and in the world. Now it is clear that the discourse about a battle of democracy vs autocracy is not some empty discussion but a real battle in the real world. 

Ukraine, externally looking as a somehow dysfunctional or chaotic democracy (as basically all democracies) shows incredible resistance and resilience against its dictatorial militaristic enemy. Ukrainians know what they are fighting for, and the values they are defending. They would never accept an authoritarian system, a police state, or international isolation. That being said, Ukraine defends the same values the EU always claimed to protect: human rights and freedoms, freedom of the press, democracy and European unity. Not only does Ukraine defend those values but also actively fights for them with blood, unlike most of the European countries, which didn’t see war for over 80 years now; fighting courageously since 2014 and have no plans of giving up. 

In addition, I think that the EU should seriously decrease its energy dependency on Russia as soon as possible. Germany plays an especially critical role in it. Now all the payments for the imported Russian oil and gas are de-facto going to finance Russia’s war machine, which continues its onslaught on Ukraine. Any dependency is dangerous, especially one on the manipulative, geopolitically ambitious authoritarian state

Consequences

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shook the world and created an unprecedented dangerous case of failed denuclearization, Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, or any kind of nuclear deals. In 1994, Ukraine gave up its third-largest nuclear arsenal, consisting of some 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads, the United States, Russia, and Britain committed “to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and “to refrain from the threat or use of force” against the country (Pifer, 2019). This memorandum was violated and not completely neglected first in 2014 and once again now. Ukraine, once being a nuclear weapon, voluntarily gave it up, now facing a massive invasion and enemy’s war crimes on its territory every day. Unfortunately, this case creates a dangerous ambiguity regarding the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and any sort of deals made with the major powers about one’s security and territorial integrity. The trust in international order and security architecture was damaged, and the invasion of Ukraine may cause a lot of turbulence elsewhere in the world.

Both China and Taiwan are looking closely at this war. Clearly, the scale of the Western assistance and the painfulness of sanctions make China think, whether it is worth the risk of going for Taiwan by military means. Ukraine now shows that supplied weapons are almost a game-changer and the invasion by an even much bigger army can be successfully countered. The war is not over yet but both China and Taiwan can make some conclusions already. 

The global fight for democracy and autocracy is being decided in Ukraine. If Russia wins, it means that any bigger and more powerful neighbour, especially with nuclear power, can threaten or openly invade smaller and weaker states, blackmail the world with nuclear weapons and continue proceeding with its neo-imperialist plans. The victory of Ukraine will discredit the authoritarian regimes, once again reminding them about its danger to the world and solidify the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine, uniting the democracies around the world even stronger. That is why we need to support and help Ukraine to win this war with all the means available. Russia’s victory will establish a very dark chapter in European history again and we will be drawn into the disastrous turbulence.